By Cliff Rold

I’ve written so much about this fight for the last couple years that I’m sort of at a loss for words now that it’s here.  Sort of.

Sometime after 2 AM Sunday morning in Cardiff, Wales (9 PM EST/6 PM PST on HBO in the States), the opening bell will clang, a potentially great fight will ensue, and an entire weight division, 23 years after it crowned its first true champion, finishes its coming of age.

World Super Middleweight Champion Joe Calzaghe (43-0, 32 KO, WBO titlist) of Cardiff.

#1 Contender Mikkel Kessler (39-0, 29 KO, WBC/WBA titlist) of Copenhagen, Denmark.

If you love boxing, this is as good as it gets.

If you’ve followed the journey of the 168 lb. weight class to this moment, it’s a little bit better.  Written off almost since its birth as an unnecessary frivolity thrust upon the world by greedy sanctioning bodies, time has done for the Super Middleweights what it does for any weight class.

Time has given the division history…history to look back to and build upon in the moments leading up to the first jab and last hook thrown from Calzaghe and Kessler.  There have been big fights before at 168, fights like Ray Leonard-Tommy Hearns II, Roy Jones-James Toney and Nigel Benn-Chris Eubank II, but this might turn out to be the biggest and best of them all.

The division started anonymously enough.  Marvin Hagler had the Middleweights by the throat and Michael Spinks was wrapping up his run at Light Heavyweight.  Into that mix came the Super Middle’s first crowned titlist.

Into that mix came Murray Sutherland.

Sutherland was just the kind of fighter the new division seemed to be looking for when born in the spring of 1984.  A solid, hungry guy looking for a title who had already found the bigger mountains (in this case Spinks…twice) too tough to climb.  Sutherland would give way immediately to Korea’s Chon-Pal Park; Park would firmly entrench himself the king; and on it went.

If you’re scratching your head going “Who?” there’s no need to feel bad.  The division didn’t get off to a big start.  It has though taken some great turns since as noted above (and let’s not forget Frankie Liles-Tim Littles either) but always with a key difference. 

The difference between all those bad cats before and the two men squaring off this weekend is geography.  They all started south of 168 and moved up.  Jones and Toney moved largely because they couldn’t comfortably make 160 anymore.  The Brits moved up either to chase the money with each other or because they’d already been shown the door by the elite at 160.  Leonard moved up probably because Michael Nunn wasn’t at 168 and, hey, who wouldn’t want to have fought Donny LaLonde and a supposedly shot Hearns instead of the young Nunn.

Now we have this.  This is a super Super Middleweight bout between two men who have no legacy beyond the division.  They have made their bones, and broken them, all at 168.

Calzaghe’s ten years as a WBO titlist have proven that a fighter can be only a Super Middleweight and still be great (there was also German Sven Ottke but he never seemed to care enough to make big fights so I don’t care to give him much credit).  Any division in its early days demands its first standard-bearer and Calzaghe has been it.  Ten years and twenty defenses of any title is always an accomplishment worth noting.  Calzaghe’s willingness to define that accomplishment in the twilight of his career adds drama.

Last year, it was undefeated U.S. Olympian Jeff Lacy, a younger man perceived by many as the favorite going in.  Calzaghe eviscerated him.  Now he has an even bigger challenge from a better, more proven fighter than Lacy was.

There were some who recognized Kessler’s talents before the Lacy bout.  Ring Magazine never moved Lacy past Kessler in the ratings and a small group of scribes (yeah, including me) hollered from the rooftops that the big test was still coming.  That both Lacy and Kessler make the Calzaghe ledger is a credit to the aging warrior.  He could have made a move for one big payday in the U.S., waiting out the end of his career against more of the Mario Veit’s of the world.  That he has not says much of the champion he has always been, even if the whole world wasn’t always watching.

Between 40 and 60,000 fans will be packed into the Millennium Stadium this weekend in appreciation of his willingness to take this challenge and in anticipation of a fight that many (yeah, again including me) think might be the fight of the year.  That Calzaghe gives up a big chunk of calendar (he is 35, Kessler 28) and height (5’11 to 6’1) merely adds to the ingredients of a great mix.

Calzaghe of course is not the whole story.  Kessler has been expertly managed with gradually more challenging fights thrown his way until finally exploding for his first alphablet against Manny Siaca of Puerto Rico in late 2004.  The Siaca bout began a string of five straight wins against top ten foes (adding Anthony Mundine, Eric Lucas, Markus Beyer and Librado Andrade), three of them by stoppage.  Kessler operates behind arguably the best left jab in the sport and is able to parlay that into lethal combination punching.

Kessler is the ultimate perimeter player.  He’s rarely forced to work inside.  Calzaghe is one of the game’s best inside, able to swarm, drop his head and throw bunches of punches that dazzle opponents prior to dazing them. 

I guess I’m not at much of a loss for words after all.

Nope, this is that kind of fight, the kind of fight that has all the angles.  Old lion versus young lion…check.  The changing guard versus a legacy stamped …check.  The styles to make a fight fan giggle…check.  One can never say a fight is can’t miss, but this one would have to try.

There is of course another dimension not explored enough in the build to this bout.  It’s arguably the first internet Superfight.  By that I mean that it is the first fight that was built largely through the fuel of sites like YouTube.  Calzaghe was already well known to U.S. audiences, having been seen often on Showtime over the years.  Kessler was different.  Before Kessler made his HBO debut last spring, he was a fighter whose buzz was created through bouts that had been traded and viewed online since the Siaca fight.  Before the mainstream caught on, internet fight fans and internet-age writers were calling for this fight.  They were the beginning of the momentum that has caught fire.  It’s a remarkable testament to the power of new mediums.

That the winner will face a field of fellow natural Super Middleweights like undefeated Carl Froch, Lucien Bute and Denis Inkin, forgetting for a moment the possibility of a trip up the scale for Bernard Hopkins, shows how far Super Middleweight has come since Park and Sutherland battled for supremacy.  Super Middleweight has grown and developed over the last two-plus decades into a weight class deserving of respect.  This fight should erase any doubts that remain about that and, if it doesn’t, the rising field will take care of the rest.

Pick: The only way to close this off is to finally make a pick and this is a white knuckler all the way.  I can see multiple scenarios playing out.  I can see Kessler winning close and losing a controversial decision on foreign turf.  I can see Calzaghe overwhelming him on the inside.  I can see Kessler doing the same from the outside, carving Calzaghe up with the jab.  I could even see Calzaghe’s southpaw stance leading to a headbutt cut stoppage at some point, dampening my first trip to Europe. 

I can see any of those options but, ultimately I do see this: Kessler’s age is a factor but so is his concentration.  He showed in defeating Anthony Mundine on Mundine’s turf in Australia that he can muster incredible concentration under pressure.  He almost pitched a shutout against the athletic Mundine on perhaps Mundine’s best day.  Calzaghe will have his moments, and the fight will have its ebb and flow, but Calzaghe’s tendency to drop his head when he throws the overhand right will allow Kessler to eventually begin timing the jab and right hand. 

When that happens, likely sometime at the midway point in the fight, Kessler will begin to break the older man down, frustrating him and emphasizing his slight advantage in size.  Kessler by late stoppage, probably around the 11th round, in an event that colors both men in glory. 

Showtime:  This of course is not the only fight on tap this weekend.  Showtime serves up a nice menu as well, with critical bouts on tap for both Friday and Saturday night.   

Friday’s bout may, in the long run, may be the more important Showtime bout.  In the second half of an IBF ‘eliminator’ series, ShoBox goes with 25-year old Eddie Chambers (29-0, 16 KO, unrated) of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania faces off against 32-year old former Olympian Calvin Brock (32-1, 23 KO, unrated) of Charlotte, North Carolina (that’s Ric Flair country to most of us under 40…whooo!).

The winner of this fight then has an unenviable task.  They have to step in front of the Alexander Povetkin (14-0, 11 KO, #10 Ring Magazine) express.  Anyone who viewed the Russian Povetkin’s professional, precise bludgeoning of veteran Chris Bryd last weekend saw a professional on the cusp of very big things.  He showed better balance than he had in his last bout, against Larry Donald, along with the patience to resist punching blindly at Byrd along the ropes.  He remained composed, slipping Byrd’s counters and finding holes for short hooks and uppercuts.

The winner of what is now the Chambers-Brock-Povetkin triumvirate won’t matter if it’s Brock.  He’s already been seen prone at the feet of Wladimir Klitschko.  It probably won’t matter if it’s Chambers, a fighter who often seems like a more aggressive Byrd.  It will matter if it’s Povetkin; he’s not there yet but he has a shot at the top and that makes Brock-Chambers matter.

On Saturday, the man considered second only to Manny Pacquiao at jr. lightweight (130 lbs.), 34-year old Juan Manuel Marquez (47-3-1, 35 KO, #2) of Mexico City, squares off with an intriguing challenge of his own in his first start since defeating Mexican legend Marco Antonio Barrera last March.  27-year old 2000 U.S. Olympian Rocky Juarez (27-3, 19 KO, unrated) of Houston, Texas presents that challenge and, yes, it will be a challenge.

In his three losses, two to Barrera and one to the underrated Humberto Soto, Juarez has appeared at times to have trouble getting started, finding himself chasing the scorecards as well as his opponent.  The one thing Juarez has going for him is a left hook that can bail him out.  Marquez has epic boxing ability, but he’s also shown wear recently, slowing down from his peak speed and power of five years ago.

It’s that Juarez left hook, and the law of averages, that are leading me to a pick few others are making: Juarez KO 10.  Juarez is a good fighter with some good losses.  There’s no shame in that.  I’d rather see a guy take tough fights and lose a few, learning his craft, then see wins over stiffs ad infinitum.  I think Juarez is good enough to break through in a big fight and, with a distinct age advantage over a certainly aging old champion and the desperation of needing a win to make his career more than ‘okay,’ Juarez pulls the upset.

If I’m right, the implications for Manny Pacquiao, Top Rank and Golden Boy Promotions…well, those are fodder for another day.

Cliff’s Notes…

Ghost: On the Showtime undercard, top ten bangers at 126 lbs.  Robert Guerrero (20-1-1, 13 KO, #3) of Gilroy, California (Garlic capital of the world) defends his IBF featherweight belt against Martin Honorio (24-3-1, 12 KO, #7).  It’s a solid scrap and one that promises to go some violent rounds.  Too bad they’ll be throwing down while Calzaghe and Kessler are likely to be in the ring; too good that most fight fans know the words “On Demand”…

Sakata: With a win this Sunday in Japan, WBA Flyweight titlist Takefumi Sakata (31-4-1, 15 KO) would wrap up one of the best unsung strings of any fighter in the game this year.  His foe, Denkaosan Singwancha (40-1, 16 KO, unrated) of Thailand isn’t unfamiliar to U.S. audiences; he lost a spirited 2002 Showtime bout against then-WBA titlist Eric Morel that is all but forgotten.  It was his last loss having won twenty in a row since.  It’s a shame that politics and business didn’t allow for Sakata to take a shot at the lineal World champion and fellow Japanese native Daisuke Naito, but this should be a fight worth checking out and a nice compliment to Sakata’s two excellent wins over superior talents Lorenzo Parra and Roberto Vasquez…

Final Flurry: Sakio Bika advances to the finals of the Contender next week to face Jaidon Codrington.  That’s the best final bout the show has ever produced…So it turns out Oscar and Floyd did higher PPV numbers than originally reported.  Good for them.  Maybe next time both get in the ring with anyone, or each other one day, we’ll get a fight worth the buys…Kasim Ouma back in action Friday on Telefutura.  Anyone think he would have lost to Sergio Mora?  Me neither…That’s it for me.  I have a honeymoon to pack for.  Next week is Mosley-Cotto.  Be excited.

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com