There’s a reason the referee counts to ten.

It’s unavoidable when an older boxer starts hitting the deck to assume the end is near. Last August, entering as a favorite seemingly just inches from securing a long sought title shot, Dillian Whyte had to see the light at the end of the tunnel. He put Alexander Povetkin down twice in the fourth round. All he had to do was cross the finish line.

Whyte couldn’t keep Povetkin down. 

The referee couldn’t get to ten.

One round later, Povetkin returned the favor. The referee could have kept going well past ten. It was a fun upset as the sport came out of COVID and now the big men will do it again. Povetkin is a 2004 Olympic Gold Medalist and arguably the best heavyweight of the last 15 years or so not to win a serious title. Whyte is one of the better contenders in the last few years without a title shot. Both would like to find their way into the ring with Anthony Joshua or Tyson Fury.

One of them is going to take a massive step backwards on Saturday (DAZN, 2 PM EST)   

Let’s get into it. 

Stats and Stakes

Alexander Povetkin

Age: 41

Titles/Previous Titles: None (Held WBA sub-title 2011-13)

Height: 6’2  

Weight: 228 ¼ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Chekhov, Russia

Record: 36-2-1, 25 KO, 1 KOBY

Press Rankings: #3 (Ring), #4 (TBRB, BoxRec), #5 (ESPN, Boxing News)

Record in Major Title Fights: 0-2, 1 KOBY (5-2, 3 KO, 1 KOBY including WBA sub-title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 111-8 (.933)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Chris Byrd TKO11; Ruslan Chagaev UD12; Marco Huck MD12; Wladimir Klitschko L12; Carlos Takam KO10; Mike Perez TKO1; Johann Duhuapas KO6; Christian Hammer UD12; Anthony Joshua TKO by 7; Dillian Whyte KO5

Additional Current/Former Champions/Titlists Faced: Hasim Rahman TKO2 

Vs.

Dillian Whyte

Age: 32

Title/Previous Titles: None

Height: 6’4 

Weight: 247 ¼ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Britxton, London, United Kingdom

Record: 27-2, 18 KO, 2 KOBY

Press Rankings: #4 (Ring), #6 (Boxing News), #7 (TBRB), #8 (BoxRec), #9 (ESPN)

Record in Major Title Fights: N/A

Last Five Opponents: 149-16 (.903)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB/Ring Rated Foes: Anthony Joshua TKO by 7; Joseph Parker UD12; Dereck Chisora KO11; Alexander Povetkin KO by 5 

Additional Current/Former Champions/Titlists Faced: None 

The Pick: Does the scale mean anything for this one? Whyte is lighter by five pounds while Povetkin scaled four more than the first time. It could mean Whyte is playing for more speed. It could mean Povetkin went easier on aging legs that almost failed him the first time. 

It could mean lunch.

What matters most is likely to be what happens when each man gets hit, period. Right now, we know Povetkin takes Whyte’s power a little better than the opposite. Povetkin is more vulnerable than he was in his prime but his technical foundation remains. Povetkin’s combination of professional and amatuer experiences isn’t any more there for Whyte in this rematch than it was in the first fight. Whyte has the physical advantages but Povetkin, who is still deceptively quick, ultimately eliminated them with schooled timing. Povetkin used boxing smarts to set up a perfect uppercut after getting a look at Whyte in real time. 

Anything really can happen when good big men square off and Whyte has the size, power, and youth to win this one. Whyte may even have Povetkin down again at some point. The thinking here though is Povetkin won’t have grown ancient since last summer. Having seen Whyte once, Povetkin isn’t going to find the data having changed all that much. Whyte’s defensive liabilities remain. Eventually, Povetkin finds an opening and repeats with another stoppage.       

Rold Picks 2021: 15-2

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com