by Cliff Rold

Saturday night (CBS, 9 PM EST), we find out if the wait was worth it.

After talking about fighting late last year, and then pushing the fight back following a car accident for Keith Thurman, we arrive at an interesting fight in an interesting time at welterweight. Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao still loom over the division, no one really believing either has had their last fight.

They don’t control it like they used to. Thurman-Porter, and later this year the unification bout between Kell Brook and Jessie Vargas, are bouts about a new direction at 147 lbs. Historically, this is nothing new.

Welterweight is a class that rarely has a lull. Take a serious look back in time and try to find one. When was the last genuine extended down time for the class? The late 1950s between the end of Carmen Basilio and the emergence of Emile Griffith? That was only a couple years. The Cory Spinks/Zab Judah years were also short.

Compare that to a class like middleweight that has struggled for an extended period of depth for most of the last 25 years. One might find times when business wasn’t red-hot but they’ll struggle to find a time when welterweight wasn’t still a centerpiece of quality.

The key to that is fights happening in the ring and leading to more fights along the way. Thurman-Porter is a healthy place to start. 

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Keith Thurman
Age: 27
Title: WBA Welterweight (2013-Present, 5 Defenses including interim title fights)
Previous Titles: None
Height: 5’7 ½
Weight: 146 lbs.
Hails from: Clearwater, Florida
Record: 26-0, 22 KO?
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-0, 1 KO (6-0, 4 KO including interim title fights)
Rankings: #1 (ESPN, BoxRec), #3 (Ring), #5 (BoxingScene, TBRB)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 5 (Carlos Quintana TKO4; Jan Zaveck UD12; Julio Diaz RTD3; Robert Guerrero UD12; Luis Collazo RTD7)

Vs.

Shawn Porter
Age: 28
Title: None
Previous Titles: IBF Welterweight (2013-14, 1 Defense)
Height: 5’7 
Weight: 147 lbs.
Hails from: Las Vegas, Nevada
Record: 26-1-1, 16 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 2-1, 1 KO
Rankings: #3 (BoxingScene), #4 (Ring), #5 (TBRB), #6 (ESPN)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 5 (Julio Diaz D10, UD10; Devon Alexander UD12; Paulie Malignaggi TKO4; Kell Brook L12; Adrien Broner UD12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Thurman B+; Porter B+
Pre-Fight: Power – Thurman A-; Porter B
Pre-Fight: Defense – Thurman B+; Porter B
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Thurman B+; Porter B+

On paper, this appears an evenly matched affair. That might not be the same as an exciting one. A big question mark about this fight is how the styles will mesh. A lot of that is about Porter. The energetic former titlist is strong as an ox and tends to fight with a full body approach sometimes appearing more mugging than poetic.

It’s not an insult. Porter brings the fight. In his last win, over Broner, he used his energy and physicality to insist on a win. His conditioning allowed him to survive a late knockdown where he was in considerable trouble. He makes opponents uncomfortable and forces them to fight on his terms more often than not.

Thurman, who has gone from the look of a knockout artist early to a fighter with an eye on defense, can’t let the pace get away from him. Taller and longer, Thurman’s jab will be critical. If he can keep Porter at bay, and force him to think on his way in, the advantage is his. Of the two, Thurman is the more precise and powerful puncher. He can repeat Broner’s late success and has the ability to finish.

Both men have shown that when matched evenly, they can be hit. Porter sometimes doesn’t maximize his contact, winging a little wild. His most impressive wins, over Alexander and Malignaggi, were steam rolling efforts against men where he didn’t have as much respect for the incoming.

He’ll need that respect Saturday. Thurman’s job will be to remind him.

The Pick

Both men have seasoning and experience coming into their showdown and it should mean a round or two of patience. Neither is going to want to make a mistake and ample ring rust could be there for both. Porter hasn’t fought since Broner a year ago. Thurman-Collazo was only a couple weeks after that. Once the rust comes off, the jab and footwork of Thurman should be the difference. He can emulate some of the success Brook had against Porter, using his better range to control the action. As this fight gets past four or five rounds, Thurman should be in full control. The pick is the more precise Thurman, by stoppage, in a fight that ends up being somewhat one-sided by the end.  

Overdue Extra

With this Saturday examined, here’s a quick recap of last weekend’s bantamweight title change on the undercard of Joe Smith-Andrzej Fonfara.

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Payano B+; Warren A/Post: B; A
Pre-Fight: Power – Payano B; Warren C+/Post: Same
Pre-Fight: Defense – Payano B-; Warren B/Post: Same
Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Payano B+; Warren B/Post: B; B+

It wasn’t as good as their first fight, largely because both men comported themselves within the rules for more of it. There was also a difference in tone. The first time around, Rau’shee Warren had to warm to the task. In the sequel, the three-time former Olympian got off to a quick start. It made all the difference.

Punching less than he should, Warren needed a lead to hold on to as the rugged Juan Carlos Payano inched closer on the cards. With the fight in the balance, Warren came up with a big round eleven and finally got himself a taste of gold.

A third fight between the two might make some sense but for Warren the key is to keep winning against anyone. There is a wave of talent coming through 115 lbs. right now and it’s set to get US TV. If he can hang on for a few defenses, he will be the American titlist with the chance to call out someone like a Naoya Inoue or Roman Gonzalez.

Warren has a belt. Greater financial opportunity might be a little more of a wait. 

Report Card and Staff Picks 2016: 24-9

Cliff’s Notes…

Before CBS hits air, British fight fans will have a solid card at the O2 Arena…on the undercard, there is an interesting crossroads match between a pair of former title challengers…George Groves has won twice since a competitive loss to Badou Jack. Martin Murray has won once since a narrow defeat against Arthur Abraham. The more versatile and younger Groves should be able to handle Murray for a decision but it will be fun…Showtime will have the main event (5:15 PM EST) and the future of the heavyweight division will continue to build in a clash of 2012 Olympians. Anthony Joshua still has plenty to prove but it doesn’t look like Dominic Breazeale is the man to test him. Joshua is too good, too balanced, too conditioned. Joshua retains the IBF heavyweight belt inside six rounds.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com