By CompuBox

Boxing’s first big "event" of 2009 will unfold when Ricky Hatton (45-1, 32 KO) defends his Ring Magazine junior welterweight championship against pound-for-pound king Manny Pacquiao (48-3-2, 36 KO) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. While "The Pac Man" is a more than 2-to-1 favorite to beat "The Hit Man," the styles suggest a potential Fight of the Year may be near.

As of late, Pacquiao has been a living representation of the "pound for pound" concept as he has gone up and down the scale without sacrificing speed or power. Like Paul Williams, Pacquiao is competing in a different weight class for the fourth consecutive fight (Juan Manuel Marquez at 130, David Diaz at 135, Oscar de la Hoya at 147 and now Hatton at 140) and against Diaz and De La Hoya he has been nothing short of spectacular. 

In his first fight at lightweight last June 28 at Las Vegas’ Mandalay Bay, Pacquiao brutally seized Diaz’s WBC title with sizzling combinations that opened cuts on the bridge of Diaz’s nose, near the right ear and above the right eye before setting up a one-punch KO in the ninth. Pacquiao was 230 of 788 (29 percent) to Diaz’s 90 of 463 (19 percent) overall, throwing 36 more punches per round (88 to 51) and landing nearly 16 more (25.6 to 10). But it was Pacquiao’s power punching that set him apart this night as he went 180 of 490 (37 percent) to Diaz’s 59 of 319 (18 percent). Over the first four rounds Pacquiao averaged 64 power punches per round (far above the lightweight average of 40) and out-landed Diaz 80-30 in that stretch. The largest statistical landslide occurred in the eighth when Pacquiao landed 36 of 100 to Diaz’s 4 of 38, including a 28-3 bulge in connected power shots. A final illustration of Pacquiao’s superiority lies in this statistic: Diaz’s high for total connects was 14 in rounds two and three while Pacquiao’s lowest connect total was 17 in the fourth.

Pacquiao’s showing against Diaz persuaded De La Hoya to make "The Dream Fight" last December 6 at the MGM Grand, but few guessed "The Pac Man" would continue the master class in technique he began against Diaz. From first bell to last it was a mathematical massacre. Pacquiao was 224 of 585 overall (38 percent) to De La Hoya’s 83 of 402 (21 percent) and landed a mind-blowing 59 percent of his power shots (195 of 333) to De La Hoya’s 51 of 164 (31 percent). Pacquiao never fell below 50 percent accuracy in his power shots, his best being 68 percent in the fourth (32 of 47).

De La Hoya had hoped to dominate with his jab, but while he attempted nearly 30 per round he landed just 13 percent of them (32 of 238) as the shorter Pacquiao nearly matched him (29 of 252, 11 percent). When it became clear to Pacquiao that the listless "Golden Boy" couldn’t hurt him, he turned on the jets. In rounds four through eight he out-landed De La Hoya 149-30 and in the searing seventh Pacquiao landed more power shots (45) than any other De La Hoya opponent ever tracked by CompuBox.  Because it got no better in the eighth, the bout was stopped between rounds.

In recent years, taller counter-punchers with good jabs such as Juan Manuel Marquez and Erik Morales (first fight) have troubled him. Since Hatton is neither – even with the tutelage of Floyd Mayweather Sr. – he’ll have to find a new way to beat the Filipino star.

Hatton is coming off an impressive 11th round dismantling of Paul Malignaggi at the MGM Grand this past November.

He made “The Magic Man” disappear by doing three things. First, he hurt the New Yorker with a big right in the second. Second, his pressure effectively neutralized Malignaggi’s vaunted jab as he averaged just 19 jabs per round (as opposed to the 40.5 he threw in his first fight with Lovemore N’Dou). Finally, Hatton’s power punching and superior stamina eventually wore Malignaggi out. In that category Hatton was 99 of 377 (26 percent) to Malignaggi’s 25 of 133 (19 percent) and registered double-digit connects in each of the final four completed rounds. Unlike Pacquiao, who unleashes torrents approaching 90 per round, Hatton averaged 46.9 against Malignaggi yet he rolled up advantages of 124-91 in total connects and 99-25 in power connects. Thus, Hatton does more with less.

Hatton’s most recent southpaw foe was Luis Collazo, who defended his WBA welterweight belt against “The Hit Man” in May 2006. Though Hatton registered a first round knockdown, the taller Collazo hung in there and even had Hatton badly hurt in the final moments before losing a close decision. The numbers were competitive: Hatton out-landed Collazo 259-213 overall and out-threw him 741-712, but it was his power punching (254 of 637, 40 percent to 167 of 471, 35 percent) that made the difference. Still, Hatton struggled to land the jab against the tricky lefty as he connected on 5 of 104. If Hatton is to beat Pacquiao he must have more success establishing range with his left.

It also bears pointing out that Hatton’s lone loss came against the quick-fisted Floyd Mayweather Jr., who scored an uncharacteristic one-punch KO in November 2007. While Pacquiao is left-handed like Collazo, he is a stocky aggressor instead of a willowy trickster, and while Pacquiao is fast-handed like Mayweather he is nowhere near as elusive.

Prediction: This will be a battle of speed versus strength and the man who imposes his style early will win. Unlike the slow Diaz and the aged and weight-weakened “Golden Boy,” Pacquiao will face a primed opponent coming off one of his best wins. However, Hatton will need to be the Ricky of old stylistically and use Mayweather’s lessons to be more elusive while charging in. In the end, Pacquiao has too many tools at his command and he will use them to capture a unanimous decision