We are one fight from Deontay Wilder-Tyson Fury II.

We also might be one fight away from Luis Ortiz-Deontay Wilder III.

Could we actually be two fights from Luis Ortiz-Andy Ruiz?

The table is set for door number one but Saturday night (Fox PPV, 9 PM EST) isn’t a round of Let’s Make a Deal. As noted earlier this week, plans can go asunder. While there was a strong case for Wilder having deserved to lose to Fury in 2018, his toughest physical contest at the championship level came one fight prior.

Ortiz outboxed him early and then came off the floor to get Wilder in all sorts of trouble in round seven. The older Cuban couldn’t finish the job and Wilder came back to stop him. It was one hell of a fight.

Will we get as good a show this time? Could we get something better? Ortiz showed up on the scale Friday trimmed to his lowest weight since 2015. He’s come to win.

Wilder always does the same. 

Let’s get into it.

Stats and Stakes

Deontay Wilder

Age: 34

Title: WBC heavyweight (2015-Present, 9 defenses)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 6’7  

Weight: 219 ½ lbs.

Hails from: Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Record: 41-0-1, 40 KO?

Rankings: #1 (ESPN), #2 (Ring, Boxing Monthly, BoxRec), #3 (TBRB)

Record in Major Title Fights: 9-0-1, 8 KO

Last Five Opponents: 118-3-2 (.967)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: Sergey Lyakhovich KO1; Bermane Stiverne UD12, KO1; Tyson Fury D12

Vs.

Luis Ortiz

Titles: None

Previous Titles: None

Age: 40

Height: 6’4

Weight: 236 ½ lbs.

Hails from: Miami, Florida (Born in Cuba)

Record: 31-1, 26 KO, 1 KOBY (1 NC)

Rankings: #6 (TBRB, Ring, ESPN), #7 (Boxing Monthly), #8 (BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 0-1, 1 KOBY (2-1, 2 KO, 1 KOBY, 1 NC including interim WBA title fights) 

Last Five Opponents: 127-15-1 (.892)

Current/Former World Champions Faced: Deontay Wilder TKO by 10

The Case for Wilder: Wilder learned a lot about who he is in the first Ortiz fight. While he suffered a big knockdown and near loss early in his career, the methodical development of a man once labeled a project after winning a bronze medal at the 2008 Olympics paid off. He won a belt and then gradually stepped up his competition. By the time he got to Ortiz he knew he could go rounds and Wilder knew his power carried late. What he didn’t know was whether he could endure against a top tier opponent who put him on his heels. He knows now and, in both the Ortiz and Fury fights, was further insured his power is always there to bail him out. Wilder will always be technically flawed but even the best technicians have to be wary of a fight hand he masks well behind his jab. His stamina is excellent and it’s a burden on opponents that they can never really relax against him. The most important lesson he learned against Ortiz could matter greatly on Saturday. Wilder learned that Ortiz can’t take his best shots. If he can get the right hand home, or even his less heralded but still sizzling left, he can retain again.  

The Case for Ortiz: Ortiz’s long education in the Cuban amatuer system is evident when he’s in the ring. He paces himself well, stays cool, and keeps to fundamentals while looking to bring punishment. Ortiz doesn’t have fast feet but he has good balance, works off a hard jab, and puts punches together well. Against Wilder, when he had him hurt, he couldn’t quite find a finishing touch and seemed to run out of gas after his effort in the seventh. If his condition on the scale is an indication, he could be a little quicker on Saturday. Even if not, he’s clearly looked to cut bulk with an eye towards better stamina. Ortiz has to be wary of the right but if he can get to Wilder early, and before he’s been on the deck, it could change the complexion of the fight. Ortiz looked like he was winning rounds the first time but he wasn’t making Wilder worry about letting his hands go. If he can make Wilder feel like he has to take more risks it could create countering opportunities. He couldn’t finish Wilder the first time. If he hurts the Alabama native again, does he have it in him to draw on previous experience and close the show?

The Pick

Ortiz has clearly done everything he can to whip his body into shape and prepare for what is probably his last real chance to burst through near the top of the class. The question is whether we saw the best of Ortiz the first time or whether there is another level left in him we haven’t seen yet. If there is, we could see the upset. The problem is Wilder continues to improve and get more confident seemingly with each fight. While not young in boxing terms, Wilder is still younger here with a lot less rounds under his belt. The fresher commodity knows he can win because he’s already done it. The older man hopes he can but carries the memory of what Wilder’s power did last time. Eventually, Wilder lands again and Ortiz’s chin won’t catch any better when it does. Ortiz has a chance but the smart pick is a repeat, this time a little earlier.     

Rold Picks 2019: 65-16

Cliff Rold is a member of the Ring Magazine Ratings Advisory Panel, the Yahoo Pound for Pound voting panel, and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com