After a long year where it looked like boxing’s biggest cash cow since the retirement of Floyd Mayweather might not make it into the ring, Saul Alvarez picks up where he left off.

He’s fighting one of the top dogs from middleweight to light heavyweight.

In fact, this Saturday (DAZN, 10 PM EST) Alvarez will face his sixth consecutive opponent rated by TBRB or Ring across three weight divisions. Only one of the six, Rocky Fielding, was rated lower than #2 in their division when Alvarez faced them. In Callum Smith, Alvarez pursues a title in a fourth weight class (ignoring WBA secondary straps) and can add Ring’s belt at 168 lbs.

Smith arrives at the biggest moment of his career after a victory in the World Boxing Super Series elevated but didn’t quite launch him. Being honest, Smith is lucky to be as highly rated as he is in the division, much less still be holding the Ring or WBA belts at super middleweight. The decision over John Ryder in his last start was, to say the least, fortunate. Regardless, Smith is the consensus leader of his class defending against a lineal middleweight king who has yet to officially abdicate his throne.

It’s hard to ask for much more.

Good fortune and better timing have smiled on Smith, opening the door for a clash where he can put a bad day behind him if he can punctuate his greatest night. There’s even a little extra family motivation as Alvarez previously stopped Callum’s brother Liam.

In a division with lots of quality, unbeaten talents, super middleweight is still looking for an identity in 2020. The winner of this fight gives the division shape to propel it into the new year.     

Let’s get into it.

Stats and Stakes

Callum Smith

Age: 30

Current Titles: WBA/Ring super middleweight (2018-Present, 2 Defenses

Previous Titles: None

Height: 6’3  

Weight: 168 lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom

Record: 27-0, 19 KO?

Press Rankings: #1 (TBRB, BoxRec, ESPN, Boxing Monthly)

Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 2 KO

Last Five Opponents: 132-10 (.930)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: George Groves KO7; Hassan N’Dam N’Jikam TKO3; John Ryder UD12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: None 

Vs.

Saul Alvarez

Age: 30

Title: Lineal World Middleweight (2015-Present, 4 Defenses); TBRB/Ring/WBC/WBA Middleweight (2018-Present, 1 Defense)

Previous Titles: WBC Super Welterweight (2011-13, 6 Defenses); Ring Jr. Middleweight (2013); WBC Middleweight (2015-16, 1 Defense); TBRB Middleweight (2015-17); WBO Jr. Middleweight (2016-17); Ring World Middleweight (2015-18, 2 Defenses); IBF Middleweight (2019)

Height: 5’8

Weight: 148 lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico

Record: 53-1-2, 36 KO?

Record in Major Title Fights: 13-1-1, 7 KO (14-1-1, 8 KO including WBA sub-title fights)

Last Five Opponents: 171-6-2 (.961)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Ryan Rhodes TKO12; Josesito Lopez TKO5; Austin Trout UD12; Floyd Mayweather Jr. L12; Erislandy Lara SD12; Miguel Cotto UD12; Amir Khan KO6; Liam Smith KO9; Gennady Golovkin D12, MD12; Rocky Fielding TKO3; Daniel Jacobs UD12; Sergey Kovalev KO11

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: Miguel Vazquez UD10; Carlos Baldomir KO6; LOvemore N’Dou UD12; Kermit Cintron TKO5; Shane Mosley UD12; Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. UD12

The Case for Smith: Look at the two men, face to face, and the size disparity jumps out. It feels like Smith should be able to find a way to keep the shorter man at bay. He’s over half a foot taller with an almost eight inch reach advantage. His advantages were close to the same for Ryder and the problems he had in that fight bear correction here. Smith can sometimes paw with his jab and bring it back slow, allowing opponents to charge forward and get close. Smith has to fight tall, stick the jab, and make space his ally. Smart clinching and some well timed uppercuts are in order as well. Smith seems to be more comfortable bending his knees, making himself small while working a good left to the body and a long right. He will be the slower man on Saturday so Smith’s best chance to win could come in being focused and patient, keeping Alvarez at bay and picking away for points without exchanging for prolonged stretches.     

The Case for Alvarez: While both men may be thirty, the gap in world class professional experience is massive. Alvarez has seen a little bit of everything and while he sometimes wins close, and sometimes with a little luck on the cards himself, he has tools to mitigate the length of Smith. Alvarez’s jab is quicker and his defense is more nuanced. Alvarez has carried his power in fights above super middleweight so far and while he’s not a high volume worker he is very good at managing the pace of fights. Alvarez has seen size before if not quite the combination of height and reach here. The Mexican star can offset it with hard body shots and likely better physical strength. If he can time and take away the jab of Smith, he’ll find an awful lot of frame to pound on.

The Pick: It’s as much a mistake to underrate a fighter off their worst night in the ring as it is to overrate them off a single excellent outing. The thinking here is Smith’s performance against Ryder is more the outlier than his win over Groves. If Alvarez starts out to make a statement and Smith can assert his jab, the champion can win early rounds and create a riddle for the bigger star. The problem for Smith will be maintaining the riddle for twelve rounds. Even in a best case scenario, Alvarez’s solid whiskers make a stoppage unlikely and Alvarez is extremely tough to beat on the cards. Alvarez is eventually going to get the mid-range fight that works best for him, probably sooner than later. It will make for some crowd pleasing exchanges and Smith may reveal a dimension to himself we haven’t seen yet. Based on what we have seen, the pick is Alvarez based on landing heavier, cleaner, quicker shots often enough to merit a decision victory. 

Rold Picks 2020: 30-10

Additional Saturday Picks

Emanuel Rodriguez Dec. Reymart Gaballo

Gary Antonio Russell TKO Juan Carlos Payano

Jaron Ennis TKO Chris Van Heerden

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com