Mayweather-Pacquiao: 17 Years To Superfight - Report Card

by Cliff Rold
 
It’s been almost 17 years since Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao won their first professional titles. Saturday night (9 PM EST/6 PM PST) at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, they will face off for the title of best…
 
…best Welterweight in the world…
 
…best pound for pound fighter in the world…
 
…best professional pugilist of their era.
 
It’s been a long time coming and yet it feels like old times. Major media outlets are inundated with fight coverage. ESPN has coverage all day. Sports talk radio is talking about the fight on par with the NFL Draft.
 
It was like this more often once and yet never like this at all. In 1987, the Sugar Ray Leonard-Marvelous Marvin Hagler fight was so big that CNN broke in every three minutes to give a summary as the rounds unfolded. Leonard-Hagler didn’t have the fun, the atmosphere, that social media adds to the occasion.
 
Now, one can find someone to chat fight week with anywhere in the world, 24 hours a day.
 
For those outside Las Vegas, it ends as it ever did: with friends, or with family, maybe a barbecue grilling and surely drinks spilled.
 
And then, the bell sounds.
 
Let’s go to the report card.
 
The Ledger
 
Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Titles on the Line: Lineal World Welterweight (2010-Present, 4 Defenses); WBC Welterweight (2011-Present, 3 Defenses); Ring Magazine Welterweight (2013-Present, 2 Defenses); WBA Welterweight (2014-Present, 1 Defense)
Age: 38
Height: 5’8
Weight: 146 lbs.
Hails from: Grand Rapids, Michigan
Record: 47-0, 26 KO
Record in Major Title Fights: 25-0, 10 KO including lineal (24-0, 10 KO, WBC/WBA/IBF/WBO only)
Current/Former World Champions Faced: 20
 
Vs.
 
Manny Pacquiao 



Title on the Line: WBO Welterweight (2014-Present,
Age: 36

Height: 5’6 ½

Weight: 145 lbs.
Hails from: General Santos City, Cotabato del Sur, Philippines

Record: 57-5-2, 38 KO, 3 KOBY
Record in Major Title Fights: 18-2-2, 11 KO, 1 KOBY including lineal (15-2-2, 8 KO, 1 KOBY, WBC/WBA/IBF/WBO only)
Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 19
 
Grades
Speed: Mayweather A-; Pacquiao A-
Power: Mayweather B; Pacquiao A-
Defense: Mayweather A+; Pacquiao B
Intangibles: Mayweather A+; Pacquiao A+
 
Yesterday, a lengthy examination of the stakes and stats in the fight examined the competition of both men, their accomplishments, and their respective performances in various weight classes.
 
Let’s get to the fight itself.
 
Power is likely to be a factor by proxy more than determination. As outlined yesterday, neither man has been a knockout artist at Welterweight and above. They can hurt each other, but a stoppage here would be more likely to come from accumulation or a single perfect counter. It would be about tactics in a long game. Pacquiao is the better career puncher and has more knockdowns in the last few years. Mayweather is more dangerous on the counter if he can time Pacquiao coming in.
 
Assume this is going rounds and is more likely to be a decision contest.
 
Speed is a huge component of this fight and on multiple levels. Both have declined from A+ peak speed but that’s still better than almost everyone else. In terms of a single shot, Mayweather is longer and quicker. If he can establish the jab, he will freeze Pacquiao on the outside and force him to reset. As the fight wears on, it will mean more opportunities for lead rights and left hooks.
 
For Pacquiao, the speed advantage comes by way of combinations. If he can avoid the jab, or get off before Floyd, he has the chance to do what he does best. Land in multiple, step around, and try to do it again. Pacquiao, with a reportedly solid meal for lunch, came in at 145. It’s a lean 145, indicating he may have trained for speed. After weighing in at a career high of 147 for a pair of losses in 2012, he’s been back down the scale since.
 
Speed isn’t just an offensive factor. It’s a defensive factor. Who will handle the other man’s speed better? This is a tricky question and the answer may be that Pacquiao, at least initially, handles the speed of Mayweather better than the opposite. Pacquiao has seen a closer approximation to the speed of Mayweather in his last two fights (with Timothy Bradley and Chris Algieri) than Floyd has seen in any fight going back to Miguel Cotto in 2012.
 
That in no way says Bradley or Algieri are Mayweather. They are just closer to Mayweather speed than Cotto, Robert Guerrero, Canelo Alvarez, or Marcos Maidana are to Pacquiao. Cotto, Alvarez, and Maidana landed more clean shots on Mayweather than most are used to seeing. If they can catch him, so can Pacquiao.
 
What neither Bradley or Algieri has is Mayweather’s ring IQ or defense. Neither is as brilliant in creating space or timing a foe. Space and timing are big here. Pacquiao isn’t a great inside fighter like a Duran or Chavez, but he is dangerous in exchanges at short range. If he can go side to side, and keep Mayweather from timing him, he will dictate space. Pacquiao has developed underrated head and upper body movement to allow him to hang with bigger men.
 
Mayweather will defend better if he can control the range, forcing Pacquiao to come forward when he wants him too and walking Pacquiao down to keep him off rhythm. Mayweather is an accurate, smart puncher; economical. If he solves the timing of Pacquiao, he’ll be slipping and rolling and walking Pacquiao into shots.
 
In terms of intangibles, these are both exemplary professionals. Mayweather has had the better chin, and it’s not just because he’s been hit less. Pacquiao has been down at Flyweight, Jr. Featherweight, Featherweight, and Welterweight. He’s been hurt in all those classes. Floyd has been rocked a few times but his balance is impeccable and, when hurt, he’s shown to be quick to recuperate and mean in response.
 
Where he makes up for it is incredible stamina. It’s rare to see Pacquiao tired. Against Antonio Margarito, he was hurt bad to the body and yet had the reserves to fire back with ferocious stuff.
 
These are men of tested character between the ropes. The anticipation for this fight isn’t an accident. The Hall of Fame resumes aren’t either. We are seeing two of the genuine greats in the twilight of their careers answering the last big question for both.      
 
The Pick
 
Manny Pacquiao can win this fight. He has the hand and foot speed, the angles, and the underrated ring intelligence, to find ways to win rounds. A knockout seems unlikely but Pacquiao can hurt anyone. Mayweather has a proven chin and so Pacquiao’s best hope is to outwork him.  That is a possible conclusion and, having reviewed the most recent fights of both makes it feel more so. Pacquiao was more impressive in the Bradley rematch than Mayweather was in either Maidana fight.
 
It is more probable that Mayweather will win. Both men have slowed down from their peak and that favors the more technically sound Mayweather. This could be a lot of fun in spots but in order to pick Pacquiao, it has to be assumed he can win enough rounds to score a decision without a knockout. It's not far-fetched, but the thinking here is to go with the most likely scenario.
 
Pacquiao will have moments until Mayweather solves the space of the fight and pulls away in the final third for a decision victory.
 
Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 25-7
 
To be concluded May 2, 2015 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada…
 
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