Billed as the no-chance kid for most of his career – during which he’s taken numerous beatings – the sense that he’s being served to Filip Hrgovic just for the sake of another have-a-go-hero storyline is hard to ignore.

There is of course room in other sports for such lopsided matchmaking. Who can resist it when a lower league team is drawn against an outfit like Manchester United in the FA Cup, for example? And those of a certain age will remember ski-jumper Eddie “The Eagle” Edwards winning hearts with his hapless 1988 Winter Olympics campaign. But at least Edwards always landed on his feet.

Perhaps we’re overrating Hrgovic somewhat and doing Allen a disservice, however. The 34-year-old “White Rhino”, who yesterday weighed 248lbs which suggested he’s at his trimmest since 2019, has clearly trained well. He is a tenacious fighter when fit, he seems to have a win-or-bust attitude heading into this one and, in Jamie Moore, he has a coach who can get the most from him. Hrgovic, meanwhile, can be accused of coasting through his career and never quite fulfilling what was significant promise. Even so, valid reasoning went into the oddsmakers installing the Croatian, three inches taller than Allen at 6’6”, as a 1/10 favourite.

Allen, 25-8-2 (20 KOs), has lost to Dillian Whyte, Luis Ortiz, Lenroy Thomas, Tony Yoka, David Price, Frazer Clarke, Johnny Fisher and, most recently, Arslanbek Makhmudov. Some were more competitive than others and a couple – the decision defeats to Thomas and Fisher – could have gone his way. But even when one considers the wins he’s achieved over Lucas Browne, Nick Webb and Fisher in a rematch, there’s nothing to suggest he stands more than the slimmest of chances against Hrgovic, universally recognized as one of the 10 best heavyweights in the world.  

If Hrgovic is one-half of this 10-rounder because he’s a world-class heavyweight, Allen takes his place in his nearby Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster, because he’s built a following with his everyman persona and courage under fire. But it’s curious that after losing widely to Makhmudov over 12 punishing rounds last year – in which Allen was labelled ‘Cinderella Man’ on the promotional artwork – he’s now heading into a contest as an even bigger underdog against a better opponent.

It’s no secret that Zuffa Boxing were sniffing around Hrgovic and the Croatian, highly ranked by the sanctioning bodies, made his demands clear to current promoters, Queensberry. There is now a plan in place for Hrgovic; earn handsomely for handing Allen the ninth pasting of his career and then move forward to challenge for a belt or earn another fortune for testing the skills of fast-rising Moses Itauma.

The plan for Allen, promoted by Matchroom, is the same as it’s always been: Survive. The contest is billed as Dave vs Goliath which we could be forgiven for presuming we’ve heard before because Dave has always been Dave and his opponents in his biggest fights have always been Goliath-like in their perceived superiority. But what is the likelihood of toppling Goliath this time? Frankly, it’s difficult to make any case whatsoever. 

Hrgovic, 19-1 (14 KOs), can boast victories over Zhilei Zhang, David Adeleye and Joe Joyce. Not exactly a murderers’ row, admittedly, but three fighters who would have been strongly favoured to beat Allen. The 2016 Olympic bronze medallist’s lone defeat came when he was stopped in eight rounds, in a mild upset, by Daniel Dubois two years ago.

That loss might tell us more about Allen’s chances than any of the Croatian’s victories; Hrgovic walked through several full-blown Dubois blasts and was only stopped due to cuts. He also had little trouble giving almost as good as he got as his looping right hand, a powerful weapon, regularly wobbled Dubois or stopped him in his tracks. The notion that Allen will have the power to do what Dubois could not, or that he will be any harder to hit than Dubois, seems fanciful at best.

In fact, though this is heavyweight boxing where we have been told, and will continue to be told, that ‘anything can happen’, all evidence suggests that the ‘puncher’s chance’ Allen has is really no chance at all.

Team Allen, however, will have noticed Hrgovic’s habit for picking up nasty cuts around the eyes. This, perhaps, is where the surprise can be visualised; Allen employs some rough and tumble, and the 33-year-old Hrgovic’s skin betrays him to such an extent that the contest is stopped. 

More likely, though, is that Hrgovic proves his superiority and that Allen, falling further behind with each passing round, is rescued by either the referee or his own corner before, we hope, the horror of making mismatches at this level is truly realised.