By CompuBox

In the summer of 2003, Ricardo Mayorga was fresh off his second victory over Vernon Forrest while Shane Mosley was several months removed from a cut-induced no-contest against Raul Marquez. At that point in time a match between the Nicaraguan wild man and the cool Californian would have been an intriguing clash of styles as well as big business for the sport. As fate would have it, both attempted to further consolidate their credentials with mixed results. That December Mayorga barely failed in his attempt to unify three welterweight belts by losing a majority decision to IBF king Cory Spinks while Mosley won the WBA and WBC straps at 154 by decisioning Oscar de la Hoya in September.

The bad news is that they didn’t meet when both were closer to their respective peaks. The good news is that the September 27 match between Mosley (44-5, 37 KO) and Mayorga (29-6-1, 23 KO) remains an interesting crossroads fight in terms of styles and their respective career paths. Mosley, who turned 37 on Sept. 7, comes off a close and compelling decision loss to then-WBA welterweight king Miguel Cotto last November 10 while Mayorga’s last outing – a majority decision win over Fernando Vargas two weeks later – was arguably his best effort since the first Forrest fight. Despite the results of their most recent fights, Mayorga – who will turn 35 on Oct. 3 – is a hefty 7 ½-to-1 underdog, mostly because “Sugar Shane” was highly competitive against a confirmed top three pound-for-pound entrant while Mayorga out-slugged a hefty and faded Vargas.

Today’s analysis will focus on each man’s most recent performances against the biggest names, which includes fights against a common opponent in Vargas.

On February 25, 2006 in Las Vegas, Mosley met Vargas at 154 pounds, and the bout produced several swings in momentum before the effects of a horribly swollen eye prompted a 10th round stoppage. The statistics accurately reflected the bout’s closeness as Mosley landed just six more blows overall (153-147) while throwing 74 more to do so (520-446). Mosley landed just 10 percent of his jabs (21 of 203) while Vargas was far more efficient (27 of 91 for 30 percent) with his. Still, Mosley managed to out-perform Vargas in power punches as he landed 132 of 317 for 42 percent while Vargas was 120 of 355 (34 percent).

The justification for the rematch on July 15, 2006, again in Las Vegas, was that Vargas appeared to be coming on at the time of the stoppage. The round-by-round figures offered some justification for that as rounds four through seven – before the effects of the eye swelling took hold – saw Vargas amass an 83-62 connect edge overall and a 67-58 edge in landed power shots, sweeping all four rounds in the process. Once the injury’s impact manifested itself in rounds eight and nine the fight turned precipitously as Mosley out-landed Vargas overall 40-29 while averaging 56 blows to Vargas’ 39.

In terms of activity level, the Mosley-Vargas rematch was virtually identical in that Mosley averaged 55 punches per round (compared to 52 in the initial bout) and Vargas averaged 45 (slightly more than the 44.6 he unleashed in bout one). The results couldn’t have been more different as Mosley was utterly dominant before stopping Vargas with a bodacious hook to the jaw.

Great fighters tend to make adjustments when they fight difficult opponents a second time, and such was the case with Mosley against Vargas. The most notable change Mosley made in the rematch was his offensive approach. In the first fight 61 percent of his blows were power shots but in the second fight 61 percent of his punches were jabs. Mosley increased his jabs-per-round rate by 59 percent (34 to 20.3) over the first match and tripled his number of connects (62) while throwing 203 in less than six rounds as opposed to 204 in nine-plus rounds five months earlier. His increased jab effectiveness translated directly to his power punch numbers as he landed at an impressive 59 percent clip (74 of 126). This, in turn, kept Vargas’ offense in check.
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COMPUBOX ANALYSIS
SHANE MOSLEY vs. RICARDO MAYORGA

While Vargas threw more jabs over six rounds (103) than he did in 10 rounds in the first fight (91), he landed six fewer (21 to 27). His power punch output per round dropped by 22 percent and his power connects per round rate was 35 percent lower (7.8 to 12).

Against Cotto, Mosley pushed himself to his absolute limit while also doing the same to Cotto. Both landed the same amount of punches (248) but Mosley threw 99 more punches to get there (774 to 675). Mosley’s offensive approach was very similar to the Vargas rematch in that his jab-to-power punch ratio was 56-44 in favor of jabs while Cotto’s was 57-43 in favor of power shots. Still, Cotto landed more jabs (98-71) despite throwing 151 fewer (288-439) but Mosley out-performed Cotto in power shots in that he landed 53 percent (177 of 335) to Cotto’s 39 percent (159 of 387). The most revealing stat is that Mosley came on stronger in the final three rounds, an aspect for which Cotto was renowned. In rounds 10-12, Mosley out-landed Cotto 62-52 overall and 47-34 in power shots, and the sight of Cotto backpedaling in the final minutes was alien to longtime devotees. In retrospect, Mosley may have uncovered the first chinks in Cotto’s late-round armor, an armor that was subsequently pulverized by Antonio Margarito.

Speaking of being pulverized, that’s what happened to Mayorga when he fought Felix Trinidad in October 2004 in New York and Oscar de la Hoya in May 2006 in Las Vegas. In both fights he served as a foil to a pair of comebacking superstars.

Trinidad was fighting for the first time in 29 months when he met the Nicaraguan and he couldn’t have looked much better. Trinidad landed a mind-blowing 63 percent of his punches overall (290 of 460), 55 percent of his jabs (72 of 131) and 66 percent of his power punches (218 of 329) before stopping Mayorga in the eighth. Mayorga piled up bigger numbers in terms of punches thrown across the board (104 more thrown overall, 42 more jabs and 62 more power shots) but his effectiveness was abysmal compared to Trinidad’s. He landed 149 fewer punches, landed 59 less jabs (at an 8 percent clip, no less) and 90 fewer power shots. His macho attitude fueled not only his face-first style but also caused him to absorb more of a beating than necessary.

The story held true against “The Golden Boy,” who sought to exact revenge for the Nicaraguan’s comments about his family during the pre-fight build-up. Mayorga again attempted more blows in all three categories but De La Hoya’s explosiveness and accuracy carried the day. De la Hoya landed exactly twice as many punches (116-58) while attempting 69 fewer (264 to 333) and he buried Mayorga in terms of landed jabs (48-6) and jab percentage (44-4). Mayorga made a go of it in the power punch department as he went 52 of 197 (26 percent) but even then De La Hoya was his master as he was 68 of 156 for 44 percent accuracy.

Those performances persuaded Vargas to target Mayorga when he emerged from a 16-month hiatus following the second loss to Mosley. At 164, Mayorga was at his heaviest weight by a full six pounds but his body looked strong and conditioned, unlike Vargas’ bloated physique. To virtually everyone’s surprise – including Vargas’ – Mayorga carried his power with him as he scored knockdowns in rounds one and 11 en route to a majority decision win that most say should have been unanimous. In the end, Vargas proved to be Mayorga’s foil and not the other way around.

It was, simply put, the most complete and under control performance of Mayorga’s career at the world class level. His combinations, especially to the body, were very effective and he eschewed his practice of exposing his chin and letting his opponents slam it with impunity. His nearly 70 punches per round was in line with past performances, as well as his 64-36 ratio in favor of power punches. As usual, the jab was of little consequence as he landed 30 of 290 (10 percent) while Vargas was 42 of 191 (22 percent).

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COMPUBOX ANALYSIS
SHANE MOSLEY vs. RICARDO MAYORGA

It was the power numbers that vaulted Mayorga to the mild upset of Vargas as he went 196 of 541 (36 percent) to Vargas’ 178 of 421 (42 percent), a margin that led to his 226-220 edge in overall connects that required Mayorga to throw 226 more punches. This performance restored Mayorga as a viable participant in high-profile matches and that is why Saturday night’s encounter finally became a reality.

Prediction: As HBO’s Larry Merchant would often say, “is it better late than never or better never than late?” Mosley’s “power boxing” approach combined with Mayorga’s bombs-away mindset will make for a dynamic action fight and because both have above-average chins this should go plenty of rounds.

The big question here is this: How much did the Cotto fight take out of Mosley? At 37, Mosley is several years past his peak but even a diminished Mosley is a handful for anyone. As for Mayorga, the Vargas performance makes him a live underdog. He may have lost three of his last six fights, but two of those defeats came to taller and faster icons in Trinidad and De La Hoya while the third was to Spinks, a stylistic nightmare for anyone. Mosley and Mayorga both stand 5-9 but while “Sugar Shane” will enjoy a four-inch reach advantage (74 inches to 70) he is not a stick-and-move sort. He may be a speed merchant, but his soul is that of a warrior and that’s why this will be a toe to toe affair.

The oddsmakers say this will be an easy fight for Mosley, and five years ago it may have been. But time and punishment have a way of equalizing matters, so this should be a more competitive fight than it is portrayed on paper. That said, both men have been off almost the same amount of time and Mosley still remains the better all-around fighter. Thus, Mosley should win a close but unanimous decision.