By John Hively

April 22nd, 2006 may be one of the most momentous dates in the history of boxing. On that day, Wladimir Klitschko of Ukraine will most likely easily defeat Chris Byrd of the United States for Byrd’s IBF heavyweight title. If that result occurs, it may mark the dawning of a new era in boxing. Three of the four major titlists will be from Eastern Europe. Like the flood waters of Hurricane Katrina that swept away much of New Orleans, a rising tidal wave of Eastern European fighters threatens to sweep away American supremacy in the heavyweight division, putting an end to an era that began with the reign of John L. Sullivan—124 years ago.

Until getting drilled by South Africa’s Corrie Sanders left hand a few years back, Klitschko looked like the successor to the undisputed champion, Lennox Lewis. In that fight, when hurt, Wlad looked like a deer in headlights, shocked and awed and unable to respond to the subsequent onslaught of his adversary. After being run over by the South African in the second round, as well as suffering a loss to Lamon Brewster, Klitschko seems to have recovered some of his old confidence, and it would be surprising if he didn’t join the ranks of heavyweight titlists once again, especially since he defeated Byrd in a one-sided fight six years ago. 

The other titlists are Nicolay Valuev (WBA), Sergei Liakhovich (WBO), and Hasim Rahman (WBC). Valuev, of Russia, defeated John Ruiz a few months ago to win his title. Liakhovich, of Belarussia, triumphed over Lamon Brewster two weeks ago for the WBO championship. Hasim Rahman, of the United States, was awarded the WBC title last autumn when Vitali Klitschko of Ukraine retired.

It is possible that Oleg Maskaev of Kazakhstan will defeat Rahman once again when they meet in a rematch, thereby ensuring that Europeans hold all of the major titles. Several years ago, Maskaev not only stopped Rahman in eight rounds, he knocked him completely out of the ring in the process. After his win, the big Kazak lost three fights by KO. Since then, Oleg has won ten straight, eight by stoppages. However, during this streak, Maskaev has been carefully matched against mostly B grade or lower level fighters. Not a contender is to be found among the lot, and the only recognizable names are trial horses Sinan Samil Sam and Sedreck Fields. The improved Rahman should be able to gain revenge against his fragile-chinned conqueror, quite possibly by the knockout route. Should he do so, there are plenty of rising challengers, almost all of whom are from Europe.

From Eastern Europe, former world amateur super-heavyweight champion Ruslan Chagaev, as well as Sultan Ibraimov, Valdimir Virchis and Timur Ibragimov are only a fight or two away from achieving real contender status (I define a contender as someone who has beaten or drawn with another legitimate top ten fighter).

Right behind the aforementioned fighters, not quite ready for the big time, are a number of boxers who are hot prospects: Aleksander Alekseev, Alexander Dimitrenko and the 2004 super heavyweight gold medalist, Alexander Povetkin, all hail from Eastern Europe.

With few exceptions, Western Europe seems to be a wasteland of heavyweight contenders.  There does not appear to be a future Lennox Lewis, Frank Bruno, Max Schmeling or Ingemar Johansson on the horizon. Audley Harrison, the 2004, Olympic super-heavyweight gold medalist, appears to have the physical tools to be a contender, but losses to Danny Williams and Dominick Guinn suggest that he lacks the mental toughness to be a real contender. Harrison appears to be a trial horse at this stage of his career. The same can be said of Paolo Vidoz of Italy.. Danny Williams of England may be poised to once again enter the ranks of genuine threats to the title holders, but it is likely that he too will have to settle for “trial horse” status.

Luan Krasniqi is perhaps the only boxer in Western Europe that might have the potential of achieving contender status. Luan was born of Kosovo-Albanian parents, but has lived his adult life in Germany. A bronze medalist in the 1996 Olympics, Krasniqi can rightfully still be considered a prospect, and he might eventually make the grade as a legitimate contender. Luan came real close to achieving contender status in his battle with Lamon Brewster several months ago. For six rounds, he boxed circles around the heavy fisted titlist, but then Luan got a little too cocky and elected to demonstrate his complete superiority over Brewster by trying to out slug him. The foolish boxer should have stuck with what had been working. Lamon emerged victorious in the ninth round.

In the United States, the only young heavyweight who has yet to make any noise is Calvin Brock. He achieved legitimate contender status with his victory over Jameel McCline many months ago.

The promise of the future appears to have burned out in the case of Dominic Guinn. Once highly touted as America’s best prospect two years ago, he has faltered with losses to Monte Barrett, Liakhovich and James Toney. His skills appear to fall somewhat short of being able to reach real contender status.

On the other hand, Toney and Liakhovich have proven that they are outstanding contenders, and losing competitive encounters against them can’t be considered too much of a negative. Those losses may turn out to be good learning experiences. The loss to Barrett is slightly less forgiving simply because Monte has never defeated a real contender. Defeating him is a big plus, but losing to him is another matter. In spite of defeating the reluctant Audley Harrison, Guinn will need to boost his game up another notch if he can, or else he will fall into the category of being a “tough trial horse,” a dead end trap he may already have fallen into.

Joe Mesi is back and undefeated and still has to be considered a potential contender. He has defeated Vassily Jirov and Barrett, but neither of them has defeated a real heavyweight contender. Both of them appear to be nothing more than major stepping stones for fighters on the way up, and Mesi struggled to defeat both. Although Joe may still possess some promise of one day being a real contender, it’s quite plausible, and even likely, that he doesn’t have the ability to go much higher up the rankings than he already has.

Of the other young U.S. fighters, none of them generates a whole lot of enthusiasm, or a promise of greatness, at least not yet. On the other hand, the same can be said of the early career of Lamon Brewster, and he certainly improved enough to become a world-class fighter. Nonetheless, a new Mike Tyson, or an Evander Holyfield or Riddick Bowe can not be located on the horizon. Another Chris Byrd, John Ruiz, Hasim Rahman or even a Tommy Morrison is not in sight right now.

Veteran’s Byrd, Rahman, Toney and Ruiz are all over thirty. In a year or two, they could all be out of the rankings and retired. When that occurs, the Europeans, along with a few others, such as Samuel Peter of Nigeria, will likely dominate the heavyweight division. This isn’t to say that American contenders will become extinct, rather it suggests they will be seen less frequently in the ratings contrasted to current circumstances.

So why is the production of U.S. heavyweights faltering, appearing to follow the same path of near extinction as that of U.S. flyweights decades ago? The answer may lie in direct government intervention in the economy. The G.I. bill provided college educations to millions of soldiers returning to civilian life after World War II.

Some credit this legislation with virtually eliminating many of the ethic European ghettos in U.S. cities by providing returning soldiers with a way to rise above urban poverty. But it is more likely that Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal programs played a greater role in reducing poverty dramatically in the ghettos that formerly provided plenty of incentives for guys like Rocky Marciano, John L. Sullivan, Jimmy Braddock, Gene Tunny and hundreds of others to put on the gloves and dedicate themselves to the sport. For example, real wages rose nearly 80 percent from 1946 to 1973, and the New Deal accounted for much of this progress. While not extinct, for the past forty years the U.S. heavyweight contenders of European ancestry have been as rare as the wild California condor.

President Lynden Johnson’s Great Society Programs, the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, coupled with the Roosevelt’s programs, along with the desires of millions of black people to achieve economic, educational and social equality may help to account for the rise of a large black middle class during the last three to four decades. This phenomenon may help to explain the declining numbers of world-class African-American heavyweights.

It’s easier to go to college and become a lawyer, doctor, teacher or a business person than to spend fifteen years continuously training just to get punched in the face and body thousands of times along the way. African-American heavyweights haven’t become as rare as their white counterparts, but it appears that they may be following the same evolutionary path.

In the U.S., some critics contend that the big guys are nowadays more attracted to other sports, such as basketball, football and baseball, but that’s not a likely cause since African-Americans have been professionally active in those sports for more than five decades, and during those years they have produced the bulk of world class heavyweights, including Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, George Foreman, Michael Moorer, Mike Tyson, Evander Holyfield.

Since 1961, African-American fighters have mostly dominated the division, both as champions and as contenders. Before 1950, football, baseball and basketball were dominated by whites, and that fact did not stop the ranks of heavyweight champions and contenders from being swelled with hundreds of American citizens of European descent. Therefore, in contemporary times, it seems unlikely that these other sports have attracted far more talent than previous from the available pool of hopeful heavyweight boxers. It is much more likely that direct federal intervention in the economy, as well as in civil rights, helped to give impetus to the rise of the black and white middle classes over the last sixty years or so, and this economic fact has played a much more significant role in the likely passing of U.S. dominance in the heavyweight division.

Of course, there is one other factor to be considered. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union fifteen years, poverty has spread and become pervasive throughout this massive region. It’s tough to support yourself as a university educated accountant, real estate agent or attorney in Moscow or Kiev if no one has the money to pay you for your services. Who wants to exchange their labor and expertise for drugs, alcohol, cigarettes and chocolate bars? Poverty is so great that Russian speaking people have fled their homelands in huge numbers and become the second largest group of immigrants to the U.S.A. for the last decade, right after the Mexicans.

Coupled with one of the world’s great amateur boxing programs inherited from the Soviet Union, along with the millions of dollars that entices world class amateurs into the pro ranks, poverty has beckoned the fighters of the old Soviet Union to join the ranks of professional pugilists. There are often few other options for a talented boxer to pursue.

The shifting fortunes of economic change brought about by political and legislative decisions in Europe and in the United States may have carried us to a great turning point in the history of the sport. The last great heavyweight champion was Lennox Lewis. He was born in West Ham, England. After Lewis retired, Vitali Klitschko of Ukraine, while not appearing to be in the same class as Lewis, was considered to be the next dominant heavyweight when he won a portion of the world title in 2003.

Unfortunately, Vitali retired due to injuries before we could see if greatness was within his abilities. With the limited pool of talent being produced in the U.S.A. compared to days gone-by, it should come as no big surprise if the next great heavyweight came from Europe, especially from the area that encompasses the old Soviet Union.