Jaime Munguia is the latest opponent tasked with finding out exactly what Saul “Canelo” Alvarez has left when he challenges the world super middleweight champion in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on Saturday night. 

Though it would be stretching the truth to suggest that Alvarez needs an impressive win to keep his career alive – the latest comeback of 57-year-old Mike Tyson proves there’s nearly always life (of sorts) in famous old dogs – it’s nonetheless difficult to shake the feeling that we’re witnessing his decline; the legs have lost some bounce, the eagerness to please has faded and the tail doesn’t wag quite like it used to.

At least that was the perception during encounters with Jermell Charlo (a natural junior middleweight), John Ryder (a serviceable contender albeit one who wasn’t deemed a threat going in) and old rival Gennady Golovkin (looking every day of his 40 years), who all went 12 rounds with Alvarez in his three most recent bouts.

Prior to those, of course, was Dmitrii Bivol up at 175 pounds and a defeat that triggered all this chat about Alvarez being over the hill in the first place. 

In short, it feels like a long time since we saw the best of Canelo and, considering 19 of his 33 years have been spent as a prize fighter, logic dictates that we’re unlikely to see that version of him again.

Needless to say, Alvarez (60-2-2, 39 KOs) doesn’t agree. “Winning by knockout is always wonderful, right?” he said this week. “So I think I’m going to win by knockout before the eighth round. I don’t care if Munguia is younger, older. I don’t care because Canelo, in the end, is different.”

In Munguia, Alvarez meets a countryman who will bring ambition and unlike the last Mexican he faced (in 2017), Julio Cesar Chavez Jr, genuine belief that he can spring the upset. Further, though the challenger’s skillset would appear lacking when compared to that of his rival’s, he’s arguably at his physical peak and that comparative youthfulness is an advantage not to be underestimated when faced with ageing superstars who might have gotten too used to their surroundings. 

Unlike Charlo, Ryder and Golovkin, who for different reasons were not physically equipped to beat Alvarez, Munguia is big, strong, has a good engine and might just be hitting his best form at exactly the right time. From a psychological standpoint it’s likely that the ballsy Munguia will dig exceptionally deep, too.

“The main thing is, we can’t get over-confident,” Munguia said. “It’s gonna be a very mental fight, a very cerebral fight, where we’ve got to pick our spots and be sure about what we’re doing.”

Picking spots and being sure – in other words, not letting Canelo settle or dictate the pace, suggests there’s a gameplan that’s been drummed into him. Tempting though it is to write off Munguia’s chances purely because of his lack of elite level seasoning, the longer that Alvarez continues to fight the likelier it becomes that he will lose to someone we didn’t expect.

As has become custom for recent Canelo outings, there was an air of disappointment surrounding the choice of Munguia as a challenger. After all, as the undisputed leader at 168 pounds, Alvarez until recently had an obvious leading contender in the shape of David Benavidez, a fighter who earned his shot the old-fashioned way before he opted to move up in weight when that shot didn’t materialize. 

With Benavidez out of the equation, and for sanity’s sake let that be the last time we mention his name until Munguia is also out of the equation, the unbeaten 27-year-old is far from a bad fallback. 

With 34 knockouts from 43 wins, Munguia is fresh off a career-best showing in which he pummelled John Ryder into submission in nine rounds four months ago. Munguia scored four knockdowns – something Alvarez could only do once when he faced the Englishman last year – and looked menacing in his first bout under the tutelage of trainer Freddie Roach. 

It’s worth considering how much damage Alvarez inflicted upon Ryder before jumping to the conclusion that Munguia is the superior puncher, however. 

Even so, it’s fair to assume that the underdog has enough potency in his fists to at least get Alvarez’s attention should he land clean and often enough. Munguia looked tired during periods of the Ryder fight, but he artfully took breathers at the right times and in June last year proved his doggedness in distance fights when he dropped Sergiy Derevyanchenko in the 12th round of a slugfest. 

The ongoing improvement in his performances is obvious if not quite awe-inspiring and one wonders how much better he can realistically get. Munguia is certainly strong and effective in the right company but should he fail to achieve success early, his looping and occasionally ragged blows – which don’t come at breakneck speed – could be exposed by Alvarez’s still excellent aim.

Though Canelo isn’t quite as offensively busy as he used to be – and he was never the busiest, let’s face it – he’s grown ever cuter when it comes to defense. At his happiest when counter punching, whether on the front foot or back, Canelo can craft openings from the subtlest of upper body movements. And it’s that intelligence in combat, particularly when fighting someone as aggressive as Munguia naturally is, which is often the most difficult to negate of all the champion’s qualities.

That aggression from the challenger coupled with Alvarez’s patience in battle is where this fight will be won and lost, it seems. 

Munguia’s best chance of victory, because he’s surely not going to turn into a stick and move artist overnight, is simply to be the busier, more aggressive of the two. Therefore, do what he does best – albeit at a level that we’re yet to see – to score in close and not be afraid to take risks when Canelo is consuming energy. 

It’s not unthinkable that Alvarez is too slow to get going, Munguia has some early success, builds a lead – or at least appears to – and then gets lucky on the cards. But it is exceptionally unlikely. To outwork Canelo early is one thing but quite another to retain the concentration required to do it for long enough to win the fight.

The likelier scenario is that Munguia, buoyed by the occasion and Alvarez’s willingness to engage, has his moments in the early going but the superior class of the old master – as he picks off his increasingly bedraggled and slowing opponent – ultimately prevails with a stoppage in the last third of a gruelling affair. 

In doing so, we’ll likely get a reminder of the fighter he used to be but ultimately more evidence of the fighter he’s destined to become.